AGI Timeline Prediction
Aggregated expert predictions provide the baseline for when human-level AI arrives. Every other metric becomes more urgent as this timeline compresses.
GPU Compute Evolution
Training frontier models requires exponentially more compute each generation. GPU roadmaps reveal the hardware constraints—and possibilities—for AGI development.
The human brain uses about 5,000 PFLOPS
Stock Prices
Last 3 Years (%)
Last 90 Days (%)
Markets price in AGI expectations through AI company valuations. Sudden moves often reflect breakthrough announcements or capability demonstrations before they hit mainstream awareness.
Data Center Locations
AGI requires massive compute clusters that cost billions and consume gigawatts of power. These facilities represent the physical bottlenecks—and geopolitical stakes—of the AGI race.
LLM Arena Leaderboard
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Real-time capability rankings track which models are closest to human-level performance. Rapid score improvements often signal major algorithmic breakthroughs before they're formally published.
P(doom) Estimates
Leading AI researchers' extinction risk estimates reveal deep disagreements about AGI safety. The wide range—from 0.01% to 99%—reflects genuine uncertainty about humanity's biggest challenge.
People to Follow
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Key voices shape AGI discourse through research breakthroughs, policy decisions, and public communications. Following the right people provides early signals on developments that will matter.
Reading List Starter Pack
| Title | Author | Source | Publication Year | Why Read? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The AI Revolution two-part post | Tim Urban | waitbutwhy.com | 2015 | A funny, stick-figure tour of narrow → general → super-intelligence that still gets referenced in boardrooms and Reddit threads alike. Perfect on-ramp before diving into heavier material. |
| Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies | Nick Bostrom | Oxford Univ. Press (print/e-book) | 2014 | The scholarly cornerstone of modern AI-risk talk. Bostrom maps scenario space, alignment pitfalls, and governance options—dense but foundational. |
| Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead | Leopold Aschenbrenner | situational-awareness.ai essay series | 2024 | A former OpenAI researcher's data-backed case that GPT-4-class scaling puts AGI on a 2027 track—and why geopolitics will reshape the race. Sharp, contrarian, and full of compute math. |
| AGI 2027 | AI 2027 project team | ai-2027.com forecast site (ongoing) | 2025 | A month-by-month, model-performance forecast that stress-tests the "AGI in five years" meme. Useful as a living baseline to compare against your own timeline intuitions. |
| Blood in the Machine: The Origins of the Rebellion Against Big Tech | Brian Merchant | Little, Brown & Company (publisher page) | 2023 | We've been here before: Merchant retraces how the first big automation wave—industrial‐era textile machines—upended work, provoked backlash, and ultimately reshaped society, offering clear lessons for today's AI surge. |
Understanding AGI requires grasping both the technical possibilities and societal implications. These foundational texts provide essential context for navigating the most consequential transition in human history.
Endangered Professions (2025-2030)
| Profession | People employed (million) | % of all U.S. jobs | Why they're cooked | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drivers – ride-share, delivery & long-haul trucking | ≈ 3.7 (2.2 heavy-truck, 1.1 light-truck, 0.4 taxi/ride-hail) | 2.3% | Fixed-route autonomous rigs are already hauling freight on interstates and delivery bots are creeping into cities; "first/last-mile" work keeps humans in the loop but head-count pressure rises fast. | |
| Call-center & customer-service reps | 3.0 | 1.8% | LLM agents already resolve Tier-1 tickets in telecom, banking and retail, slashing queue time and staffing needs. | |
| Software engineers (devs & QA) | 1.9 | 1.2% | Cursor-style tools now write boilerplate and even entire features; firms expect fewer junior hires and broader "one dev ≈ many" productivity. | |
| Bookkeeping, accounting & auditing clerks | 1.7 | 1.0% | Cloud ERPs now bundle GPT-powered invoice coding and anomaly detection, slashing routine reconciliation and data entry. | |
| Mental-health therapists & counselors | 0.45 | 0.3% | Chatbots provide 24/7 text therapy and triage, yet regulation and the need for human empathy limit full replacement—expect augmentation more than attrition. | |
| Graphic designers | 0.27 | 0.2% | Midjourney, Imagen & Canva's AI layouts churn out logos and ads in seconds; humans shift to art-direction while routine tasks vanish. | |
| Paralegals & legal assistants | 0.37 | 0.2% | AI research and drafting tools cut discovery hours and first-pass motion writing; senior review stays, but routine doc work shrinks. | |
| Video production & actors (film/video editors + on-screen talent) | 0.16 | 0.1% | Generative video, voice cloning and "digital double" tech reduce shoots, reshoots and background roles; synthetic actors already headline ads. | |
| Writers & authors | 0.15 | 0.1% | 4o-class models crank out press releases, blogs and even novels; human writers move to high-touch investigative or brand voice work. |
Economic disruption precedes AGI arrival as narrow AI systems automate specific job functions. These displacement patterns preview the broader transformation coming when AI matches human general intelligence.